Math behind Moneyball

66 h
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Detalhes do curso

Programa de Estudos

Week 1: You willlearn how to predict a team’s win loss record from the number of runs, points,or goals scored by a team and its opponents. Then we will introduce you to multipleregression and show how multiple regression is used to evaluate baseballhitters. Excel data tables, VLOOKUP, MATCH, and INDEX functions will bediscussed.

Week 2:  You will concentrate on learning important Exceltools including Range Names, Tables, Conditional Formatting,  PivotTables, and the family of COUNTIFS,SUMIFS, and AVERAGEIFS functions.

Week 3: You willlearn how Monte Carlo simulation works and how it can be used to evaluate abaseball team’s offense and the famous DEFLATEGATE controversy.

Week 4: You will learnhow to evaluate baseball fielding, baseball pitchers,  and evaluate in game baseball decision-making.The math behind WAR (Wins above Replacement) and Park Factors will also bediscussed. Modern developments such as infield shifts and pitch framing willalso be discussed.

Week 5: You willlearn basic concepts involving random variables (specifically the normal randomvariable, expected value, variance and standard deviation.) You will learn how regressioncan be used to analyze what makes NFL teams win and decode the NFL QB ratingsystem. You will also learn that momentum and the “hot hand” is mostly a myth.Finally, you will use Excel text functions and the concept of Expected Pointsper play to analyze the effectiveness of a football team’s play calling.

Week 6: You willlearn how two-person zero sum game theory sheds light on football playselection and soccer penalty kick strategies. Our discussion of basketballbegins with an analysis of NBA shooting, box score based player metrics, andthe Four Factor concept which explains what makes basketball teams win.

Week 7: You will learnabout advanced basketball concepts such as Adjusted plus minus, ESPN’s RPM,SportVu data, and NBA in game decision-making.

Week 8: You willlearn how to use game results to rate sports teams and set point spreads. Simulationof the NCAA basketball tournament will aid you in filling out your 2016bracket. Final 4 is in Houston!

Week 9: You willlearn how to rate NASCAR drivers and get an introduction to sports bettingconcepts such as the Money line, Props Bets, and evaluation of gambling bettingsystems.

Week 10: You willlearn how Kelly Growth can optimize your sports betting, how regression to themean explains the SI cover jinx andhow to optimize a daily fantasy sports lineup. We close with a discussion of golfanalytics.




Professor Wayne Winston
Visiting Professor
Bauer College of Business


The University of Houston System’s four universities and six regional campuses comprise the only comprehensive higher education system serving the world’s energy capital and the Gulf Coast region. Among institutions nationwide, the UH System remains a model of diversity and a reflection of the city it serves.


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